Bold headline: the season is rewriting early expectations, and the surprises keep rolling in. As conference play arrives, the preseason polls feel more like a snapshot than a forecast, proving that low seeds can still disrupt the narrative once the games begin. Here’s how some teams are flipping the script and turning up the heat that no one saw coming.
Starting in Lincoln, Nebraska—a program that had never won an NCAA tournament game—things look dramatically different. Nebraska was slotted to finish 14th in the Big Ten, with powerhouses like Purdue and Michigan looming on the horizon. Yet they’ve become one of the last seven teams undefeated, riding a 15-game win streak that stands as the nation’s longest. They’re 11-0 for the first time in 48 years and opened Big Ten play 2-0 for the first time in nine years, including a dominant 90-60 win over Wisconsin and their first Illinois win since 2016, powered by Pryce Sandfort scoring 26 of his 32 points in the first half. Their ascent lands them at No. 15 in the AP Top 25 for the first time in nearly 35 years.
With three more months of play ahead, Nebraska could secure a favorable seed come March, and perhaps finally build momentum toward solving that 0-8 NCAA tournament record—an unfortunate distinction shared by every other program in the ACC, Atlantic 10, Big Ten, Big East, Big 12, and SEC. It’s not exactly the legacy a program aims for.
“I think we have a very mature group, but we also emphasize not being satisfied now,” forward Rienk Mast said. He joined an elite club by recording the school’s third-ever triple-double in November. “We’re ranked, yeah, but that doesn’t mean anything.”
Elsewhere, the SEC preseason forecast looked bleak at the bottom. LSU was slotted to finish 15th, Georgia 14th, and Vanderbilt 11th. But reality has defied those projections. The trio entered conference play with a combined 28-2 record. Vanderbilt is undefeated and among the nation’s top five scorers, sitting at No. 13 in the latest AP poll—two spots below their SEC preseason ranking. They’ve eclipsed 83 points in every game and have won nine of ten by double digits. Georgia stands at 9-1 and leads the nation in scoring at 98.3 points per game, using an 11-man rotation and a heavy emphasis on dunks for a quarter of its field goals. LSU is 9-1, ranked 30th in scoring nationally, yet fifth in a high-scoring SEC.
In the Big East, Seton Hall was projected to finish last and Butler second-to-last. The reality is strikingly different: Seton Hall is 11-1 for the first time in 14 years, dispatching Rutgers by 22 points and holding nine of 11 opponents under 70 while ranking seventh in the nation in scoring defense and achieving at least nine steals in every game. Their win over a ranked NC State team and a close loss to Southern California by two points underscore their rising trajectory. Butler, at 8-2, currently leads the Big East after their dramatic 113-110 double-overtime win over Providence, a game that featured 30 lead changes and an impressive 12th-ranked NCAA offensive rebounding performance. Butler also sits at 12th nationally in offensive rebounds.
California’s preseason projection had them near the bottom of the ACC, but they’ve surged to 10-1, their best start in 11 years, including a win over a ranked UCLA squad—their first over a ranked opponent since 2020. California’s 9-0 home record will be tested when ACC visitors arrive between late December and mid-January, including Louisville, Notre Dame, Duke, and North Carolina—a combined 37-5 record among them this season.
Arizona State and Colorado landed at the bottom of the Big 12 and Pac-12, respectively, but the reality is different. The pair is 18-3 collectively, with Colorado at 9-1 and on an eight-game winning streak to begin the season—their first eight wins in 76 years. Colorado stands as the nation’s third-best three-point shooting team, despite ranking 337th in attempts. Arizona State is 9-2 and reached the Maui Invitational final, highlighted by a dramatic comeback win over Santa Clara after trailing by 19 at halftime.
Colorado State, pegged seventh in the Mountain West, has proven to be a formidable force at 9-2, with both losses by two points. Their offense is elite—leading the nation in field goals, three-pointers, and free throws. It’s a rare tri- crown that hasn’t been achieved since the three-point era began in 1987, and whenever a Ram shoots, there’s a strong likelihood it goes in at a 61.5% clip. Colorado’s lone loss came in a shootout where they made 62.1% of their shots but still fell 91-86—an indicator of how high the bar has risen this season.
Columbia, picked to finish last in the Ivy League, sits at 9-2 and leads the nation in rebounding margin at 14.3. This is a program that endured eight straight losing seasons, and head coach Kevin Hovde has become the first coach since 1950 to start 8-1 in his first nine games. The Lions aren’t backing down, even when they faced a 14-point deficit with 2:54 remaining against Stony Brook, rallying to force overtime before a 77-73 defeat.
Other notes: Tulsa, expected to finish eighth in the American, is 10-1, leading its conference in scoring, field goal percentage, three-point shooting, free-throw percentage, and assists—the only program in the nation to hold that combination. Richmond, forecast for 10th in the A-10, sits at 9-1 and is on pace to match last season’s win total by mid-December, thanks in large part to depth off the bench. Buffalo and Stony Brook, each predicted near the bottom in their leagues, have ascended—Buffalo starting 8-0 and now 9-2, and Stony Brook at 8-3 with a robust offseason resume.
October polls are informative, but they don’t decide the season. The landscape is littered with examples of teams proving the preseason wrong, and the journey from early predictions to postseason outcomes remains one of the sport’s most compelling stories.
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