Startling projection trends show Alex Bregman’s free-agent price tag climbing to near-unbelievable levels — and the market data backing that rise is piling up. While a lot can still shake out in the remaining free-agent class, and postseason dynamics often push prices higher or lower, there are now plenty of data points to assess the current market landscape.
Jesse Rogers recently examined the top four positional free agents — Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, Alex Bregman, and Cody Bellinger — and, with input from Kiley McDaniel, explored how (or if) contract projections have shifted since the offseason began. Of the group, only Tucker’s massive projection remains unaltered; the others have seen upward revisions. The part that will likely grab your attention most is Bregman’s trajectory:
“Bregman appeared in 114 games in 2025 due to an injury, though he has logged at least 155 games in five of his career seasons. Prior to last year’s drop to a 3.5 fWAR, he posted at least 4.0 WAR in three consecutive seasons. He’s only a year removed from winning a Gold Glove at third base and has consistently reached base at better than a 35% rate in the latter half of his career, while striking out more than 90 times only once — in 2017.
But as the oldest player in the group (he turns 32 in March), he isn’t likely to command a decade-long deal with any team that signs him.
“His eye at the plate is underrated. Look at his walk-to-strikeout totals. That should age well.”
To anchor the comparison, McDaniel points to Marcus Semien’s seven-year, $175 million deal signed as he entered his age-31 season as a baseline. Bregman might not secure the exact length Semien did, but his annual value should surpass Semien’s $25 million per year.
McDaniel’s projections moved from: Five years, $160 million to Five years, $170 million (or six years with a lower AAV).
In the wake of recent deals like Kyle Schwarber’s 5 years, $150 million and Pete Alonso’s 5 years, $155 million, Bregman’s projection rises into territory that could outpace those agreements.
On one hand, it’s reasonable to argue that if two high-priced, pure-hat batters command strong value, then an elite infield defender with comparable or better offensive projection should fetch even more. The obstacle? The current offensive projections don’t align: Bregman posted a 125 wRC+ this past season, while Alonso and Schwarber sit higher at 141 and 152, respectively.
Defensive value — particularly having a top-tier bat at third or second base instead of DH or first base — strengthens Bregman’s case beyond his pure offensive numbers. But does that defensive edge push him over the top relative to Schwarber’s and Alonso’s deals? Schwarber’s contract seems to rest on a belief that he’s genuinely transformed at the plate and can sustain that production, while Alonso’s deal reads as a high-value, perhaps aggressive, overpay by Baltimore.
Where will Bregman land?
Part of my framing here is internal debate: I know the Cubs aren’t likely to hand a 32-year-old Bregman a five-year, $170 million deal. Yet, the market dynamics are fuzzy enough to merit discussion. Let’s revisit suitors and what they might value this offseason:
- The Red Sox previously made an offer and actually signed him, though it was a three-year commitment with a large AAV and an opt-out after year one. The Qualifying Offer factor no longer applies, but age and term still matter. Given his age and past injuries, a short-term structure remains plausible.
- The Cubs reportedly offered a shorter, four-year deal (around $115 million) with no deferrals and an opt-out after year two; they could be content to sit tight, hoping Boston’s price outpaces theirs this time around.
- The Tigers were the other known suitor with a lengthier proposal last cycle (six years, roughly $171.5 million). It’s possible they’d pare one year and keep a similar annual value, making the five-year option either equal or even more compelling for Bregman as he ages into 32.
All said, a breakout platform year from Bregman — despite the 114-game season — could push offers significantly higher than last year. However, if there isn’t a robust macro shift (more money flowing into this offseason, more bidders active) or compelling new data suggesting sustained aging-proof performance, the math may remain conservative relative to last year’s expectations.
From the Cubs’ perspective, I maintain they’re interested in Bregman and could be in the mix, but I don’t expect them to lead the market. Their involvement would likely hinge on securing substantial value and coordinating the signing with a pitcher trade, rather than signing a high-priced free-agent starter themselves.
In short, Bregman’s market is poised to move, driven by defensive value, nuanced offensive indicators, and the willingness of multiple teams to bid aggressively. Yet the exact price remains contingent on how teams weigh aging risk, injury history, and how they value the non-offensive contributions he brings to the field. What do you think: should a premium be placed on his defensive impact and positional value, or should the market strictly follow pure offensive metrics? Would you back a five-year, $170 million deal for Bregman, or do you expect a different structure? Share your take in the comments.
